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Location: St. Louis, Missouri, United States

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Pot odds and morons

About the only way to get infinite pot odds is to be given a free card. Since you don't have to put any money in, you're getting x/0, which is infinity. But apparently on Monday night, the players at a $0.5/1 table were given virtually infinite odds in a very different way, and boy did they F it up.

Party poker was offering to give away $10,000 to everybody at the table who got dealt cards in their 3 billionth hand. That's a sweet score for sure, but the person who won the hand was set to get another $50,000 on top of that. Yet 4 out of 6 of the players at this table folded before the showdown. At least one of these jokers knew exactly what was going on, as evidenced by the fact that he typed "we did it" preflop, then folded when he didn't hit. I don't care if he had frickin' 32 o on a Q J T board. Lets think about the worst possible effective odds he could be getting after the flop: if the betting were capped on all three postflop rounds, he would have to put in $10. 50,000:10 = 5,000:1. Next time I'm getting 100,000:1 immediate and 5,000:1 effective (in the worst case scenario) you better believe I will be raising your ass with my 23 on that Q J T board and doing everything in my power to get you to fold. Against top pair I would only need running 2/3s for the win. 6 outs out of 47 unseen cards = 12.7%. 5 outs out of 46 unseen = 10.8%. 0.127x0.108 = 0.0138. Since I would win this pot 1.4% of the time, my pot equity after the flop would be just shy of $700. Not bad for $0.5/1.

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