Fuzzy math

Last night I was playing a little $3/6 limit holdem at Empire poker, trying to clear their latest reload bonus. So I'm sitting in the big blind with 55 when a middle postion (MP) playa raises, and an LP dude cold calls. I'm getting 5-1 pot odds here, so of course I call. The flop comes J 8 3, not so bad for me, and I check. MP makes his automatic continuation bet, representing some big pair I guess, but I put him on overcards. So when LP folds, I go ahead and check raise his ass. MP just calls, so I figure either he is sneaky and slow playing a pair, or he's behind and wants to get a look at the turn card. The turn is a rag and I bet out. He just calls. The river is my money card, another 5. Now I really hope he's got AA. Alas, I bet and he just calls again. The dude shows down AQ (ie ace high), and I drag the pot. But to my amazement he has the audacity to type "lucky" in the text box. Yeah, that got me hot. With furious indignation I hammered out the words "Lucky? I was ahead THE WHOLE WAY." He then said, "You sucked out on my QQ." WTF? Who did he think he was fooling? "Check the hand history bud. You had AQ." I was about to add something like, "damn, you got a short memory," when I realized just how futile that would be. Really I should have been thanking him for paying me off with such a crappy hand. So thanks, dumbass.

Nasty ass night

I don't care if you are sick and tired of reading about bad beats, I'm writing this post. Last night I dropped around $140, which may not seem like much, but at the $50 NL tables we're talking almost three buy ins and that to me is pretty nasty ass indeed. Come to think of it, I lost almost all of this money on KK, supposedly the second best starting hand in holdem. At first I was up a few bucks when I posted a late position blind, got dealt T9, and flopped J 7 8 for the nut straight. Then came the first KK. I was on the button and had three dudes limp in front of me before I raised to $2.5. The guy in the small blind immediately went all in for another $48.50. I turned to my buddy, who was suffering some nasty beats at the $1/2 tables, and asked him what he thought I should do. His response: "CALL - he doesn't have shit!" I figured he did in fact have shit, but was only really worried about AA (refer to earlier post on this issue). I'm trying to convince myself that you can't go wrong by never folding KK preflop, but now I'm not so sure. Anyway, I called and the flop came A Q 2. I knew I was screwed since both AK and QQ, the very hands I had hoped to be up against, were now well out front. The turn and river were blanks and the dude showed AA to drag that pot. Well, that was fun.

Next KK, i'm in the big blind. Again, three dudes limp and again I make it $2.50 to go. Only one guy calls. Flop comes T 8 3 with two spades. I bet 3/4 the pot and get called. Turn is another rag. Bet 1/2 pot and get raised the same amount. Now I'm wondering, but figure the pot's too big to fold now, so I throw in my money. River is nothing scary. I check and the dude bets $10. If there was ever a time to make a crying call, this was it. I didn't really see how I could be ahead, but out of frustration I called. Set of 8s win. Nice.

Next I get KK in the small blind. Everyone folds to me and I min raise. BB calls. Flop is K 9 2. Lol. We both check. Turn is 3 and I bet $0.5. He calls. River is J. I bet $1 and he calls with a pair of 9s. OK, I won this pot, but the point is that on KK I'd like to make a little more than $2.

Now there's something amazing about this hand that I forgot to mention. At the very same time that I flopped my set of Ks, I flopped a set of 3s at another table. That's never happened to me before. Anyway, this time I got some action. The flop was an 8 6 3 rainbow, and a guy in early position bet $4. Not wanting to take him out of the lead so fast (and this is what Doyle recommends with a set, btw), I just called. The button also called, and the turn brought a J. Now early guy checked and I'd be damned if I wasn't going to get some more cash in the pot, so I bet $5. That's a pretty small bet for a $15 pot but I didn't want to lose any customers on this nonthreatening board. So button calls, EP folds. Bummer. River is an A. Fine, fine. I bet $10, and the dude raises me to $30. So now it's between reraising if I think he just hit his two pair, or calling if I think he's just bluffing. Folding to me is not an option since I don't see what he could realistically have against me. In the end I decide to just call. He shows 7d6d and takes the pot with a flush that the fucker runner runnered. I hardly even noticed that both the turn and river were diamonds since I didn't see how anybody with a backdoor flush draw could call a flop bet getting only 4-1. Problem was he figured 4-1 was good enough since he also had a pair and a backdoor str8 draw. Now I was starting to smoke.

I decided to switch to a $3/6 limit table since I found a big fish there with Poker Tracker. Fortunately, I got to sit two seats downstream of him, so he wouldn't have to cold call my raises when I picked up some cards. On the second orbit I pick up KK and start licking my chops. Fish limps in on cue, and I raise. Button cold calls, blinds fold, fish calls. No ace, no ace, no ace... frickin' flop comes A 6 9 and fish checks. Well, I represented, so I gotta bet out. Button immediately calls, and dawgonit, fish folds. Turn is a blank and I bet. That was a mistake that I made out of frustration. Not surprisingly, button calls. River is another blank and I happy that at least when I check, the button checks behind me so I get to see a relatively cheap showdown. Dude has ATs. Just take it. A few hands later fish sat out and that was the end of my session.

On a much happier note, my brand new kick ass Dell Inspiron 9300, plush with 1.6 GHz Pentium M processor, 512 MB RAM, 100 GB hard drive, 128 MB video RAM, and dual layer DVD burner arrived in lab today and I've been busy transferring MP3s and installing programs. My old Dell Optiplex GX150 was having a hard time handling 8 Party tables, Poker Tracker, and Poker Tracker display all at once, and this Lexus of laptops should have no trouble cranking out the stats. Now if I could just get those cards to cooperate...

Poker Predation

I recently discovered the power of Poker Tracker (PT) combined with Poker Ace heads up display (PT HUD). PT is a program that takes all of your online hand histories and calculates just about every stat you could ever want on yourself and everyone at your table. PT HUD overlays those stats on the table as you play, so you can instantly identify both the fish and the sharks. What's more, you don't even have to be playing to get data on potential opponents - the hand histories from every open table are recorded to the hard drive and analyzed by PT.

Last night I was data mining 8 tables when I noticed a guy (I'll call him Mr. Fish) at a $3/6 table who was putting money into the pot preflop >70% of the time, going to a showdown about 50% of the time when he saw the flop, and losing about 70% of those showdowns. Luckily for me, the seat to his right opened up and I immediately sat down in it. I posted my big blind and was dealt AA the very first hand. Hells yeah. My bullets held up and I dragged a $75 pot. A few hands later I got AK in early position (EP). I raised it up and Mr. Fish cold called, as did the big blind. The flop came A K T and I bet out, making any dumbass pay at least $3 to hit his inside straight draw. The turn was a beautiful K, giving me a big full house. I bet out again, figuring there was no need for deception here. Sure enough, both guys called. The river brought an uneventful 7, and this time when I bet only Fish called me, showing down a formidable Q6 offsuit. I wonder if he was surprised that he didn't win the pot.

One orbit later I was dealt 66 in the big blind. Fish and another EP limped, and an MP player raised. The button, the small blind, the limpers, and I all called. The flop was tasty: 8d 6d 8c. Again, no point in slow playing at this table. I bet and EVERYBODY (that's five "poker" playas) called. Lol. The turn was another 6. Feeling invincible, I bet again. This time, only Mr. Fish and the EP called. That's right, the preflop raiser, the button, and the small blind all realized at that point that they were probably drawing dead. Clearly Fish never had such an inkling. The river brought a third 8, making eights full of sixes on the board. At that point I kind of wish I had checked the turn, because anyone with an over pair would have at least called if not raised a river bet here. Oh well. I bet and was called by both guys. Fish showed down 33 (fairly pathetic, though nowhere near as egregious as the last hand), and the other guy showed 7d 9d for a flopped straight flush draw that never came through.

So within about 15 minutes at this $3/6 table I was up $130. Several hands later, Mr. Fish busted out. Everyone else at the table had stats reflecting at least marginal playing ability, so I left. This marks the beginning of a new strategy for me.
1) track down fish, 2) make score, 3) leave when money dries up. Perhaps this sounds kinda cruel, but hey, these fish want to play. If somebody's going to take their money, it may as well be me.