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Location: St. Louis, Missouri, United States

Friday, June 24, 2005

Reading hands

Last night I went out to a club that was offering free drinks. You could order anything at all with no catch. It wasn't long before I had a good buzz going, and a bunch of us hit the dance floor to get our groove on. There was a girl in our group who I didn't recognize, but at one point I found myself dancing next to her and every so often her hand would barely brush by my leg. She was fairly attractive and it would have been fun to grind with her, so I tried to figure out whether she was trying to start something or was just careless about waving her hands around. The analogy to poker hit me immediately. Here I was with AJ on a flop of Ac 6d 2c after betting $3 into a $4 pot from early position and having been raised to $6 from a late position opponent. There were several different hands I could put her on: two clubs for a flush draw, an ace with a weak kicker, or potentially an ace with a stronger kicker or even two pair or a set. Making a read was of course the first challenge. The second challenge was trusting that read enough to act on it, even if that meant risking my whole stack by reraising all in (in the event that I read her for clubs or a weak ace). Last night on the dance floor, I made the read that this girl wanted to get freaky (weak ace), but I was only about 60% confident in that read, and I was not willing to risk the embarassment of getting denied (going all in and losing) for the chance to grind with a cute but by no means gorgeous girl (win a pot that wasn't all that big). Yup, I folded it right then and there. Later I found out that the girl was happily married, prompting me to adjust the confidence level of my initial read from 60% to around 0.38%. I guess the moral of the story is that it takes the nuts to move all in on someone if you can't read her hand.

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